Academic libraries nationwide face a structural transformation as digital resources replace physical collections. At Texas State University — a growing R2 institution serving over 42,000 students — Alkek Library's total circulation has declined 58% over the past decade (FY2014–FY2024), even as enrollment has remained stable. Yet this headline decline obscures a more nuanced story: equipment checkouts have surged 66% since FY2021, the secured collection has grown 67%, and students continue to fill collaborative spaces daily. The question is not whether the library is still relevant, but whether its resources are aligned with how students actually use it.
"What does a decade of TXST Library circulation data reveal about the shift from physical collections to technology and space demand, and how should the library prioritize its resource reallocation?"
We investigate this using a three-tier analytics framework — descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive — applied to 11 years of circulation reports (FY2014–FY2024), IPEDS enrollment data, and location-level checkout records across 13+ library collections.
We employed a three-tier analytics framework across 11 years of library circulation data from inconsistent multi-table CSV exports, supplemented by IPEDS institutional enrollment records. Our novel contribution: disaggregating to the location level reveals that the overall decline masks divergent trajectories — some collections are collapsing while others are surging.
11 annual circulation reports (FY14–FY24) with inconsistent formats, IPEDS enrollment data (2019–2024), 2024 engagement metrics. Cross-verified all totals against source files.
Trend analysis across total circulation, 4 material types, patron groups, and 13+ physical locations. Per-capita normalization using IPEDS enrollment to isolate behavioral change from population change.
Linear regression on FY21–24 (post-COVID window) for baseline forecasting. Collections classified into action tiers — Move to ARC / Monitor / Invest More — based on trajectory and current volume.
Our analysis reveals a library in transition — not decline. The 58% drop in total circulation reflects a national shift away from physical media, not a loss of library relevance. Three key insights emerge: (1) the decline is structural, not cyclical — circulation was falling steadily before COVID; (2) the growth story is in technology — equipment and secured collections are the only categories expanding; (3) not all collections are equal — the aggregate decline masks sharp divergence at the location level. We propose a four-tier reallocation strategy:
The library's future isn't fewer services — it's different services. Students still come to Alkek Library; they come for space, technology, and collaboration rather than books and DVDs. The current 60–64K circulation baseline likely represents the stable floor of core physical demand. Aligning resources with this reality — moving low-use collections to the ARC, expanding equipment lending, and repurposing freed space — will maximize the library's impact per square foot and per dollar invested.
[1] Texas State University Library. Annual Circulation Reports, FY2014–FY2024. Alkek Library, San Marcos, TX.
[2] National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Enrollment Data, 2019–2024. U.S. Department of Education.
[3] Texas State University Library. 2024 Engagement Data. FOLIO Integrated Library System.
[4] National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Completers & Admissions Data, 2019–2024.
Acknowledgments: We thank the TXST University Library staff for providing access to historical circulation reports, and the 2026 Open Datathon organizing committee for creating this data challenge.
AI Disclosure: AI tools (Claude, Copilot) were used for data extraction assistance and code generation. All data values were manually verified against original TXST Library reports. All analytical conclusions and recommendations are the original work of the authors.
Data Note: FY2024 class-level patron data unavailable due to FOLIO system migration. Enrollment uses IPEDS total headcount.